Day15 Reelect Adams，and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy

The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams，who is seeking reelection as governor：

“Reelect Adams，and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy.Over the past year alone，70 percent of the state’s workers have had increases in their wages，5，000 new jobs have been created，and six corporations have located their headquarters here.Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected.Adams’s opponent，Zebulon，would lead our state in the wrong direction，because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams’s economic policies.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“Over the past year alone，70 percent of the state’s workers have had increases in their wages，5，000 new jobs have been created，and six corporations have located their headquarters here.Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected.”和“Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams’s economic policies.”是事实，“Reelect Adams，and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）本文的第一个问题在于时间轴论证错误。过去如此，现在也一定如此吗？现在如此将来也一定如此吗？

（3）70%的工人工资增长，增长了多少？对比其他地区，该增幅是高还是低？同理，70%这一数字是高还是低？5000个新的工作岗位这一数字是高还是低？6个公司的总部这一数字是高还是低？没有对照的增长，是否一定意味着该地区经济发展势态良好？一个地区的经济发展又能否仅仅归功于某一位领导？如果不是，还有哪些因素可能影响经济发展？例如：国家政策，市场走向。

（4）文中的“a recent poll”是由谁发起的（大家注意这一整段话的来源是“an advertisement for Adams”）？有没有可能这个民意调查是由Adams团队自己组织的？有没有可能这个recent poll所调查的地点都是支持Adam的选区？如果是，这个调查是否可能有导向性？而这是不是会导致它所给出调查结果无意义？另外，民意调查结果就一定能预示未来吗？

（5）另一候选人Zebulon并不赞同Adam的某些经济政策，这是否就能证明Zebulon的经济政策会产生负面而不是正面的结果呢？

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