Day29 Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections

The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper：

“Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections.However，commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume.If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there，it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections.However，commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume.”是事实，“If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there，it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）原文事实句中说，搭乘新增地铁的人比预估值高，坐地铁摆渡车到地铁站的人比预估值低，这两个对比的起始预估值是一样的吗？如果不是，可以判定坐摆渡车的人就一定比不坐摆渡车的人多吗？即使不坐摆渡车的人更多，这些人都是开私家车到地铁站乘车的吗？还有其他抵达地铁站的方式吗？例如：普通公交车，步行。

（3）即使开私家车到地铁站的人多于坐摆渡车到地铁站的人，摆渡车的乘车费和地铁站的停车费是影响这些人决策的主要因素吗？还有哪些可能的原因？例如：耗时长短，居住地附近是否有站点。

（4）对于原文所期待的目标来说，降低摆渡车费，有什么可能的劣势？例如会增大公司的运营成本。对于原文所期待的目标来说，增加地铁站附近的停车费用，有什么可能的劣势？例如会引起消费者的不满。

（5）降低摆渡车的车费和增加地铁站附近的停车费，一定要二选一吗？一定是解决问题的唯一办法吗？是最好的办法吗？你能罗列一到两个其他可能的解决方法吗？例如：缩短摆渡车发车的时间间隔，优化摆渡车的行车路线。

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