五 总结
综上所述,中等收入国家在解决持续不平等现象时,可以考虑以下主要政策领域。
(1)制订并实施综合性区域发展战略,这些战略应该侧重于基础设施发展和协调的政府介入,以加强电力、交通和通信等板块。这些战略同时应该有财政转移的支持,来鼓励国内和国外直接投资。这种转移应该针对卫生和教育领域。
(2)大幅增加卫生和教育领域的人力资本支出——近年来由于中等收入国家的发展情况良好,这个任务变得更加容易。有关增加这些领域支出的政策,应该特别针对贫困社区和家庭,现金转移在这方面可以成为成功的桥梁。现金转移的可持续性需要更多的政策来保证,有数据显示这也是中等收入国家的一大重要问题。
(3)改变并制定财政政策,以简化税收系统并扩大覆盖面,使税收覆盖到相对大型的非正式板块;同时将平衡从消费转向收入,由此引入更先进的方法。
(4)促进社会保护计划进行重要变革。首先要大幅提升现有社会支出水平,在这个整体框架下,再扩大社会保护计划的覆盖面。在失业津贴方面,尤其需要改变——扩大覆盖面,并将津贴更多地针对最需要的人群。同样,也可以提升最低工资标准。各计划间的分散性也是需要解决的重要问题。但关键是,造成目前中等收入国家这种计划间分散性的原因有很多,每个国家不尽相同,解决方法也需基于现有的覆盖率而因地制宜。如上述,印度其实可以通过设计并引入一个整体现金转移计划来加强一体化,在这个整体现金转移计划的基础上可以发展出更多的计划,例如,通过基于政府补助长期储蓄的医疗保险,而开展出低收入工人的养老金计划。相比之下,中国的覆盖面相对较广。主要问题是各板块之间的移动受限,且差距很大,社会保护计划很难在不同板块间转移,透明度也很低。这些问题可以通过提高一体化来解决——最初重要的是一体化社会保障、医疗保障和养老金等计划的管理,再扩大一开始初步实施的城市、农村居民方案一体化。
参考文献
[1]Asian Development Bank(ADB),Asian Development Outlook 2012:Confronting Rising Inequality in Asia,ADB,Manila,2012.
[2]Berg,Andrew G. and Ostry,Jonathan D.,“Inequality and Unsustainable Growth:Two Sides of the Same Coin?”,IMF,Washington D.C.,2011.
[3]Berg,Ostry and Zettelmeyer,“What Makes Growth Sustained?” IMF Working Paper 08/59,IMF,Washington D.C.,2008.
[4]Chandy,Laurence and Geertz,Clifford,“Poverty in Numbers:The Changing State of Global Poverty from 2005 to 2015”,The Brookings Institution,Washington D.C.,2011.
[5]Claus,Iris,Martinez-Vazquez,Jorge,Vulovic,Violetta,Government Fiscal Policies and Redistribution in Asian Countries,International Center for Public Policy Working Paper 12-13,Andrew Young School of Policy Studies,Georgia State University.
[6]Cornia,Giovanni Andrea(2009),“What explains the recent decline of income inequality in Latin America”,draft paper presented to The Conference on the Impact of the Financial Crisis in India,Tata Institute of Social Sciences,Mumbai,March 2009.
[7]Fan,S.,R.Kanbur and X.Zhang,(2011),“China’s Regional Disparities:Experience and Policy”,Review of Development Finance,1(1).
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[1] 这些指数共同组成了多维贫困指数(MPI),联合国开发计划署2010年和2011年的《人类发展报告》中将这些指数详细地列了出来。
[2] 这些贫困估测可以在2012年Povcal数据中查到,请参阅世界银行发展数据小组在Povcalnet网站上发布的2012年数据。
[3] 请参阅Chandy,Laurence and Geertz,Clifford(2011)“Poverty in Numbers:The Changing State of Global Poverty from 2005 to 2015”,The Brookings Institution,Washington D.C.。
[4] 这个结论给发展援助提出了难题。例如,应该施行什么政策,才能最充分地解决这个问题:印度8个州的贫困人口比撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲的26个国家的贫困人口总和还多。
[5] 例如,在中等偏高收入国家中,南非的基尼系数很高,为63.1,巴西是54.7,哥伦比亚是55.9;在中等偏低收入国家中,安哥拉的基尼系数是58.6,玻利维亚是56.3。这些数据摘自世界银行《2012世界发展指数》。
[6] 数据摘自亚洲发展银行(ADB)(2012)Asian Development Outlook 2012:Confronting Rising Inequality in Asia,ADB Manila,p.47。
[7] 详细资料请参阅ADB(2012)Asian Development Outlook 2012:Confronting Rising Inequality in Asia,ADB Manila,p.47.(2012)以及OECD(2011)Divided We Stand:Why Inequality Keeps Rising,pp.56-57。
[8] 有关两者的关联,请参阅Berg,Ostry and Zettelmeyer(2008),“What Makes Growth Sustained?” IMF Working Paper 08/59,IMF,Washington D.C.,也可参阅Berg,Andrew G.and Ostry,Jonathan D.,(2011),“Inequality and Unsustainable Growth:Two Sides of the Same Coin?”,IMF,Washington D.C.。
[9] 在这个问题上,请参阅Joseph E.Stiglitz(2010),Freefall:America,Free Markets and the Sinking of the World Economy,Norton,New York;也可参阅Joseph E.Stiglitz(2012),The Price of Inequality,Allen Lane,London。
[10] 请参阅Ravallion,M.,and Chen,2(2004),China’s(Uneven)Progress Against Poverty,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3408,World Bank,Washington D.C.。
[11] 详细信息请参阅Gill and Kharas(2007)。
[12] 有关21世纪初这种“集中”现象和区域弱势的详细讨论,请参阅World Bank(2006)World Development Report:Equity and Development,chapter two,“Inequality with countries:individuals and groups”,World Bank,Washington D.C.。
[13] 有关差距扩大的资料,请参阅OECD(2011),Divided We Stand:Why Inequality Keeps Rising,chapter three,pp.53-55,OECD,Paris。
[14] 有关中国情况的详述,请参阅Li,S.,Luo C.,(2011),Introduction to Overview:Income Inequalityand Poverty in China,2002-2007,CBI Working Paper 2011-2010,Department of Economics,University of Western Ontario,Canada。
[15] 请参阅ADB(2012)Asian Development Outlook 2012:Confronting Rising Inequality in Asia,p.70,Manila,2012。
[16] 调查所选国家分别是中国、印度、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦、越南、菲律宾、不丹和泰国。数据来源请参阅WB World Development Indicators 2011,table 2.15,Education Gaps by Income and Gender。
[17] 请参阅上述ADB(2012)文献16,p.65。
[18] 请参阅OECD(2011),Divided We Stand:Why Inequality Keeps Rising,OECD,Paris,pp.57-59。
[19] 请参阅上述ADB(2012)文献16,p.66。
[20] 这种“寻租”行为有很多种形式:隐藏或公开的政府转移、减少市场竞争的补贴或法律、松懈执行有关竞争的法律,以及允许组织转移成本的法令。
[21] 请参阅上述ADB(2012)文献16,p.56。
[22] 请参阅Li Xiaoyun,(2010),China:Rural Statistics 2010,China Agricultural Press,Beijing。
[23] 请参阅上述文献Li Xiaoyun(2012),24。
[24] (2010年的)数据摘自World Bank(2012),World Development Indicators 2012,Table 216,pp.100-102。
[25] 例如,2004~2007年,七大地区经济体的股市资本化价值翻了两番。关于此趋势的更多信息,请参阅Cornia,Giovanni Andrea(2009),“What explains the recent decline of income inequality in Latin America”,draft paper presented to a Conference on the Impact of the Financial Crisis in India,Tata Institute of Social Sciences,Mumbai,March 2009,也可以参阅Ocampo,Jose Antonio(2007),“The Latin American Boom”,Revista de Ciencia Politica,Vol.28,No.1,pp.7-33。
[26] 请参阅World Bank(2012),World Development Indicators,Washington D.C.,2012。
[27] 有关计划及其实施的详细情况,请参阅Kostzer,Daniel(2008),Argentina:A Case Study on the Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados,也可参阅the Employment Road to Economic Recovery,UNDP Buenos Aires。
[28] 例如,大城市和小城市工资的差距从2000年的26%下降到了2007年的19.4%。请参阅Nora Lustig(2011),“Markets,the State and Inclusive Growth in Latin America:Argentina,Brazil,Mexico and Peru”,UNDP,2011,p.14。
[29] 请参阅Nora Lustig(2011),“Fiscal Policy and Income Redistribution in Latin America:Challenging the Conventional Wisdom”,Society for the Study of Economic Inequality,November,2011,p.23。
[30] 请参阅Cornia,Giovanni Andrea(2009),“What explains the recent decline of income inequality in Latin America?draft paper presented to a Conference on the Impact of the Financial Crisis in India,Tata Institute of Social Sciences,Mumbai,March 2009。
[31] 通过图解得知,在此期间只有厄瓜多尔2004~2005年的社会支出占GDP比例低于1990~1991年的水平。
[32] 请参阅McKinley,Terry(2010),“Inclusive Growth Criteria and Indicators:An Inclusive Growth Index for Diagnosis of Country Progress”,Asian Development Bank,Sustainable Development Working Paper 14,Manila。
[33] 请参阅Kanbur,Ravi and Raunyar,Ganesh(2009),“Conceptualizing Inclusive Development:With Applications to Rural Infrastructure and development Assistance”,Asian Development Bank,Occasional Paper No.7,Section Ⅱ“What is Inclusive Development?” ADB Manila。
[34] 请参阅Asian Development Bank(2012),Asian Development Outlook,Manila,p.74。
[35] 有关证据请参阅World Bank(2009),World Development Report 2009:Reshaping Economic Geography,World Bank,Washington D.C.。
[36] 请参阅World Bank(2009),World Development Report 2009:Reshaping Economic Geography,World Bank,Washington D.C.,pp.88-89。
[37] 最出名的相关文献:Fan,S.,R.Kanbur and X.Zhang,(2011),“China’s Regional Disparities:Experience and Policy”,Review of Development Finance,1(1),pp.47-56.也可参阅Fan,S.,R.Kanbur and X.Zhang(eds.)(2009),Regional Inequality in China:Trends,Explanations and Policy Responses. London and New York:Routledge,Taylor and Francis Group。
[38] 数据摘自2008年马来西亚经济规划部,在World Bank(2009),World Development Report 2009:Reshaping Economic Geography,Washington D.C.,p.27中被引用。
[39] 请参阅Hill,H.,Resosudarmo,B.,Vidyattama,Y.,(2007),“Indonesia’s Changing Economic Geography”,Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies,2007-13,Bandung,Indonesia。
[40] 请参阅Wisaweisuan,N.,(2009),“Spatial Disparities in Thailand:Does Government Policy Aggravate or Alleviate the Problem”,in Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia,Yukon Huang and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi,World Bank,Washington D.C.。
[41] 请参阅Claus,Iris,Martinez-Vazquez,Jorge,Vulovic,Violetta,Government Fiscal Policies and Redistribution in Asian Countries,International Center for Public Policy Working Paper 12-13,Andrew Young School of Policy Studies,Georgia State University.请注意,这篇文献也说明,虽然亚洲在教育上的投入减少了不平等程度,甚至比世界上其他地区的作用还好,但在卫生投入方面,亚洲的不平等减少的效果不如世界其他地区(见文献第25页)。
[42] 中国的“低保”方案是一种基本的现金转移,没有条件限制,唯一条件就是接受人非常贫困。
[43] 请参阅Ariel Fiszbein and Norbert Schady(2009),Conditional Cash Transfers:Reducing Present and Future Poverty,World Bank Policy Research Report,Washington D.C.。
[44] 关于此事的更多数据,请参阅Rachel Slater and John Farrington(2009),Cash Transfers:Targeting,ODI Project Briefing,Overseas Development Institute,London。
[45] 数据摘自OECD(2011),Divided We Stand:Why Inequality Keeps Rising,OECD,Paris。
[46] 例如,在印度尼西亚(2008),有权领取遣散费的工人中只有34%的人在失业后领到了这笔费用,在这些人中,大部分人领取的金额比应得的金额要少。请参阅World Bank(2010),Indonesia Jobs Report:Towards Better Jobs and Security for All,Washington D.C.。
[47] 请参阅OECD(2011),Divided We Stand:Why Inequality Keeps Rising,p.60,OECD,Paris。
[48] 请参阅World Bank(2010),Indonesia Jobs Report:Towards Better Jobs and Security for All,Washington D.C.。
[49] 这些问题在文献David A.Robalino,Laura Rawlings,Ian Walker(2012),Building Social Protection and Labor Systems:Concepts and Operational Implications,Social Protection and Labor Discussion Paper,No.1202,World Bank,Washington D.C.中有详述。下面的讨论也借鉴了此文献的一些结论。
[50] 数据摘自World Bank(2012),China 2030:Building a Modern,Harmonious,and Creative High Income Society,Washington D.C.,p.372。
[51] 城市职工保险方案中有一定的可转移性。