Day3 In a recent citywide poll，15 percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts

The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts：

“In a recent citywide poll，15 percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago.During these past five years，the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage.Since the corporate funding that supports public television，where most of the visual arts programs appear，is now being threatened with severe cuts，we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease.Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“In a recent citywide poll，15 percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago.During these past five years，the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage.Since the corporate funding that supports public television，where most of the visual arts programs appear，is now being threatened with severe cuts，”是事实，“Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）这是一个与调查研究相关的内容。文中提到“15 percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted fiveyears ago.”，这个百分比的数据一定能说明观看视觉艺术类电视节目的人数增长了吗？大家想想看百分比的增长在什么时候才等于实质性的增长？是在基数一样或更大的时候。

（3）博物馆的参观者增多一定是因为有更多的市民收看了视觉艺术类电视节目吗？一定只是因为受电视节目的影响吗？有没有可能艺术博物馆同时也采取了什么措施来吸引观众呢？例如：新添广受关注的展品，邀请艺术家做现场讲座。

（4）两个事物之间的类比，基本条件是什么？对于热衷于艺术的民众来说，参观博物馆和收看电视节目，有没有可能是互补品的关系，而不是替代品的关系呢？请复习一下经济学中最基本的概念：替代品[1]与互补品[2]。

（5）企业对公共频道的投资有可能大幅削减，就代表结论一定会发生吗？公共频道对企业投资的依赖程度很大吗？依赖程度大就一定会导致公共频道砍掉视觉艺术类型的节目吗？这之间的关系原文有建立起来吗？

写一写，练一练

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注释

[1]替代品：对于两种物品而言，如果其中一种物品价格的上涨会导致对另一种物品需求的增加，则这两种物品互为替代品。

[2]互补品：对于两种物品而言，如果两者必须互相配合才能满足消费者的同一种需要，如照相机和胶卷，则这两种物品互为互补品。