Day4 Since a competing lower-priced newspaper，The Bugle，was started five years ago，The Mercury’s circulation has declined by 10，000 readers

The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury，a weekly newspaper：

“Since a competing lower-priced newspaper，The Bugle，was started five years ago，The Mercury’s circulation has declined by 10，000 readers.The best way to get more people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of The Bugle，at least until circulation increases to former levels.The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“Since a competing lower-priced newspaper，The Bugle，was started five years ago，The Mercury’s circulation has declined by 10，000 readers.”是事实，“The best way to get more people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of The Bugle，at least until circulation increases to former levels.”是结论，“The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper.”相当于结论方案中to的部分，值得反驳吗？事实句的真实性不值得质疑，但是作者默认的因果关系值得质疑。Mercury的发行量降低一定是因为竞争者Bugle的缘故吗？是否可能是自身运行的缘故？是否可能是自身内容的缘故？是否可能是报业不景气的缘故？是否可能……

（2）文中只给出Bulge的成立时间和Mercury自Bulge成立后的销售趋势，其他信息呢？Bulge的销量一定比Mercury好吗？好多少？

（3）如果Bulge确实销售量领先，那么，价格低一定是Bugle销量高的主要原因吗？是否可能是因为Bugle的内容更加符合读者需求呢？

（4）如果Bulge的销售量确实是因为定价低，竞争者的特色就一定能够拿来充当自己的特色吗？Bulge和Mercury的目标读者是同一群体吗？降价是否有可能对Mercury而言不可行呢？即使可行，销量恢复后再提高价格有没有可能对销量产生负面影响呢？大家能否罗列一些其他可能更好的提高销量的方式方法，例如：扩充报纸所包含的信息量，尤其是读者所关注的信息；增加与读者的互动；多出独家新闻。

（5）由于降价而导致的销量增加，真的一定能够吸引来更多的广告客户吗？有没有可能目标客户多数是高端客户，他们不愿意在低价/降过价的媒体上刊登广告呢？

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